July 21, 2015

The whole story


Remember those times when you absolutely know. They’re rare.

Most of the time we’re not so sure. There’s a reason for that: if it was obvious, we wouldn’t be involved in the first place – somebody else could and should have made the decision. It’s when things get difficult that they get interesting.

Let’s assume perfect information is impossible. There are no absolutes but you need to act. What then?

Count to a hundred.

The most compelling traps look a lot like the first piece of information that agrees with your hunch … so this means that.

Does it?

A single data point isn’t enough. What else can you find? Keep looking. Keep digging. What have we missed? Where’s that extra little bit? Don’t assume a single source gives the whole story. Corroborate.

Get maximum data before the clock runs out. Do the best you can. Measure twice, cut once.

Skippy Strategy: Just because it looks good, doesn’t mean it is. Look both ways.