August 24, 2020

Feel the numbers


It’s a model. It’s a thinking tool. It’s a part of the planning. It’s a list of assumptions, the things you’re guessing, the leaps of faith. It’s a game of ifs and buts and maybes. What it isn’t, is the answer.

Playing with spreadsheets that attempt to forecast the future is an intellectual pursuit – the benefit of which is not (except for bankers) the numbers at the bottom of the page. If you think you’ll work out what will happen by when, and if you’re actions are in turn driven by a need for accuracy, you’ll make one prat-fall after another.

The point is to think. To prod and poke until you get a greater understanding of how things are linked, where the longest levers live, and the smell and feel the numbers. And then pay attention as reality questions them each month.

Skippy strategy: The home of the plan is in your bones.