May 27, 2020

Swing big, swing bad


Every financial model is laced with assumptions. Every forecast, financial or otherwise, is based on the best guess you can make on how things will play out, one, two, seventeen months later. Everyone knows it’s a finger in the air, and everyone also knows it’s the only way to do things when you don’t have the benefit of actual data from the rear-view mirror.

And then the world turns and the decisions play out and the competitors and partners and teams and technologies and suppliers and developments either play ball, or they don’t. Most times, you take a lot of swings and your average is tolerable enough to keep playing the game.

Sometimes though, reality bites harder than expected, giving or taking a bigger chunk than any scenario predicted.

What to do then? Recalibrate, reconfigure, and get back out there.

Skippy strategy: Swing big, swing bad … keep on playing.